Author: admin@hottinger.co.uk

by Alex Hulkhory

 

As a foreword to this investment commentary, although very much the focus of this piece, we wanted to acknowledge the current environment outside of the dispassionate lens through which we aim to assess markets. We very much appreciate and understand how challenging these periods can be. Whilst episodes of heightened volatility are never comfortable – and we work hard to avoid their impacts on investment portfolios – they are a function of investing in risk assets. In our role, as custodians of your wealth, we take this responsibility incredibly seriously. As an extension of this, we are always available for a conversation, so please do get in touch if you have any concerns or would like to discuss anything in more detail.

The below will centre on the key events that have unfolded over the past 11 days as markets try to digest the implications of President Trumps current policy agenda spearheaded by tariffs. Like any financially focused writing, we would be amiss to not include the relevant risk warnings and disclaimers! It has been a highly changeable environment, with news flow becoming outdated in minutes and hours!

 

The What

‘Liberation’ day – or the 2^nd April to the uninitiated – saw President Trump announce a slew of ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on goods imported into the United States. Since the announcement we have witnessed a spike in volatility and in the five following trading days, a pronounced sell off in equity markets. Over this period, the S&P500 shed over 12%, with the FTSE100 and STOXX600 down 8.07% and 9.25, respectively.

Then on the 9^th April, after a bout of extreme volatility President Trump announced that the proposed tariffs would be paused for 90 days, with the exception of China. The result? One of the single largest one-day gains for the S&P500, with the index up 9.5% on the day. In our opinion, this does highlight the benefit of staying invested during these periods, as the best and worst days in markets tend to be closely clustered. However, since liberation day, despite the almost record daily gain, the market is down -7.07% and we are very much not out of the woods!

The proposed Tariffs were only due to come into effect on the 9^th April, with the market rout having firmly taken place in the days prior, before any of the direct economic impacts had been felt. Investment markets are forward looking and hate uncertainty. In our view, attempting to rewrite the established global order of the last 80 years, may not bode well for the future, with a higher likelihood of a recession and certainly increased levels of uncertainty.

 

RECESSION??!!?!

Whilst the direct impact of tariffs has yet to come into effect. There are signs that it may be beginning to impact the economy. Looking at the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now^TM[i] – a combination of indicators that attempts to provide an estimate of US GDP growth in real time – would suggest that the US economy is slowing, with an estimate of -2.4% for the first quarter of 2025. When the policy environment becomes more uncertain and the risk of a recession increases, this can cause businesses to delay hiring and investment decisions, along with individuals deferring spending. In turn, making the risk of a recession a self-fulfilling prophecy.

In our view, one of the biggest fears for markets is Stagflation, economic weakness combined with high inflation. Think the 1970s. Typically, when we have economic slowdowns, it is accompanied by a slump in demand, which reduces inflationary pressures, allowing a robust policy response – such as cutting interest rates – to support the economy. However, in a tariff induced slowdown scenario, there would be significant upward pressure on prices. Historically this has been a terrible environment for markets, as policy makers must balance supporting the economy against the risk of an inflation spiral.

 

Jam today, or Jam tomorrow.

Mathematically, the value of a company is all future cashflows you will receive as a shareholder, discounted back to the present day. During periods of elevated uncertainty, forecasting the future becomes challenging. Naturally, with an uncertain outlook for the road ahead, trying to accurately predict how many iPhones Apple will sell many years in the future, and correspondingly its profits – an arduous task already – becomes near impossible!

Rationally, as investors projections for the future become more dispersed, the less they should be willing to pay for the future earnings of a company. In reality, these moments of elevated uncertainty can lead to a frenzied panic, in which we can see wild fluctuations in asset prices. Looking at CNN’s fear and greed index[ii] – a gauge of investor sentiment – which reached lows of 3 (out of one hundred) last week, suggests investors were exhibiting behaviours associated with extreme panic.

Although downturns in markets are unavoidable, a prominent feature in our attitude to portfolio construction is to insulate portfolios as best we can.  Our investment approach aims to focus on high quality companies, which have a high degree of predictability in their earnings. We aim to identify these companies at an attractive valuation to provide a significant enough margin of safety for when bumps in the road emerge. Whilst painful at the time, these moments can offer excellent opportunities for long-term investors.

 

The Why

In our view, interpreting the musings of President Trump has been an exercise in futility. And yet, we try! From our perspective, President Trump was elected on three key policy pillars. Tariffs, taxation and immigration. Having described Tariffs [iii]as “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”, to date, President Trump has made them the centrepiece in his mission to “make America great again”.

Central to this, has been plans to reindustrialise the US, by reshoring much of the manufacturing that has been moved to countries with lower input costs over recent decades. To us, a key tenet for President Trump has been the idea that trade deficits equate to the US being taken advantage of. Tariffs being the weapon of choice to redress these injustices.

As an aside, tariffs are not an inherently evil policy and are used by lots of countries globally. Much like any of the tools in policymaker’s armoury they can be useful if used appropriately. Historically they have been an effective way for poorer developing nations to protect and foster nascent industries, before they are ready to compete on the global stage. They are also regularly used to protect domestic markets for critical sectors, such as agricultural goods.

However, to suggest in any way that the world’s second largest manufacturing hub is in anyway nascent or in need of protection is derisory. We think this is also a view that will be shared by all major trading partners and sets the stage for retaliation. Risking an all-out trade war. Creating a lose-lose environment, in which the comparative advantages that have been established globally are torpedoed, lowering global output.

 

Trade war? That sounds bad…?

Front and centre of the evolving trade dispute has been increasing escalation between the US and China. Perceived as the worst culprit of trade injustice towards the US with a $295Bn[iv] surplus, China did not get a 90-day reprieve on tariffs. At the time of writing, tariffs on China stand at 34%, 104%, 125%, 145%! The climbing tariff rate has been a reflection of an approach of doubling down each time we have seen a response from Beijing, with China currently having a 125% tariff on US import. Beyond a certain point, the number becomes slightly meaningless as it effectively will choke off all trade between the two nations, or at the very least lead to considerable rerouting through neighbouring countries with lower tariffs.

 

The real bully!

Former advisor to the Clinton administration, Jimmy Carville is famed for his quote “if there was reincarnation, I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody”. After what appeared to us as complete indifference to the pronounced sell off in the equity markets, it seems to be the turmoil in the bond market that moved President Trump to action.

Typically, during periods of stress, investors flock to ‘safe haven’ assets seeking refuge from sinking equity prices. In our view, historically the US dollar and US treasuries have been one of the highest regarded safe haven assets, with the yield (return) offered by these US government bonds being synonymous with the ‘risk free’ level return.

Interestingly this week, we have witnessed a steep climb in yields on longer dated government bonds. In plain English, investors are demanding to be compensated more for taking on the risk of lending to the US government. This has been most pronounced in 30 yr bonds, where yields have climbed to the eye watering 4.97%.

Given America’s level of indebtedness, in our view this has significant implications for the administration’s spending plans. With $9.2 Trillion[v] of Debt due to be refinanced in 2025, a significant increase in debt servicing costs is likely to curtail other aspects of President Trump’s policy agenda. From our perspective, any proposed extension to Trump’s tax cuts from his first term in office would become challenging.

 

Reasons to be cheerful.

Whilst the above paints a rather bleak outlook, and we would certainly expect volatility to be a significant theme over the near-term there are several positives we can take from the current environment. Firstly, comparing to previous crises. The weakness we have seen in markets has very much been a function of policy rather than an exogenous shock to the economy. During the COVID-19 pandemic there was no off ramp that could immediately resolve the key issue in minutes.

Further to this, as long-term allocators of capital, periods of panic and uncertainty in markets can allow us to opportunistically deploy capital at exceptionally attractive valuations. Napoleon defined a military genius as “a person who can do the average thing when everyone else is losing their mind.” Remaining calm through these periods of volatility can provide us with a meaningful edge. We very much continue to believe attractive returns are available for patient investors.

 

 

References

 

[i] https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

 

[ii] https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

 

[iii] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-10-15/in-trump-s-economic-plan-tariff-is-the-most-beautiful-word

 

[iv] https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

 

[v] https://www.businesstoday.in/latest/economy/story/its-all-engineered-for-us-recession-isnt-a-risk-but-a-tool-warns-rivigo-founder-471364-2025-04-09

 

by Tim Sharp

The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s policies continues to weigh on sentiment with global equities dragged lower in February by the US where a significant risk-off sector rotation seems to be underway. The Deep Seek announcement seems to have contributed to the push higher in Chinese technology stocks while the narrowing of the valuation gap between Europe and the US seen since the beginning of the year continues with renewed tailwinds of a potential Russia-Ukraine cease fire and commitments to increased defence spending by many countries but particularly Germany. Most of the main European equity markets were in positive territory in February, including the UK, but this was seemingly not enough to prevent a negative print for global equities due mainly to the weight of the US in most indices.

The so-called “Trump trades” that ran after the elections have been largely neutralised with the “Magnificent 7” and the Russell 2000 small and mid-cap index down significantly as growth underperformed value. Cyclicals underperformed defensives with the best returns from Staples, Telecoms and Insurance while Autos bore the brunt of Mexican tariff uncertainty, with Technology affected by its largest components, and Retail affected by negative consumer sentiment.

Global fixed income was also stronger in February led by US Treasuries following a flat January and negative December when curves steepened significantly. We see signs that the positive correlation between equities and bonds is returning as credit spreads including EMBI generally widened as the dollar fell against both developed and emerging market currencies. The fate of the dollar adds a further tailwind to gold, with increased volatility due to the uncertain environment, which saw gold rally 5% mid-month before paring gains into month-end.

The US economy would seem to have lost some momentum with US Surprise Indicators turning negative[i]. Services PMIs fell sharply into contraction territory at 49.7 while manufacturing is still slowly expanding with M-PMI at 51.6. European Manufacturing PMI is also seen recovering while services fell to 50.7 despite falling inflation and a 0.25% cut from the ECB last week. Meanwhile, the UK services PMIs were better at 51.1 but manufacturing contracted further as CPI inflation came in hotter than expected at 3% with core at 3.7%. The December print for GDP growth also came in above expectations at 0.4%. Finally, for the first time in about 40 years Japanese inflation is higher than the US with CPI a surprising 4% print due to rising food and energy costs which is having a negative effect on Japanese financial markets.

The Trump administration looks to have started a trade war with China, Mexico, Canada, and Europe with threats of reciprocal action, however, the outlook seems to be uncertain with US policy changing daily. Absolute Strategy Research (ASR) sees the positioning as having a bigger impact at company level than at a country level due to pressures on cross border supply chains with oil and gas, autos, and electrical equipment manufacturers the most at riski. At a country level, should tariffs stay in place as outlined then it may be enough to tip Canada and Mexico into recession while the likely impact on the US, ASR predict, would be to take 0.5% off GDP and add 0.5% to inflationi. US core CPI rose by 0.4% in January, the largest monthly increase since April 2023 as core goods prices were higher suggesting inflation remains sticky and perhaps inflation expectations are being impacted by aggressive tariff negotiations. This will also help to fuel talk again about recession and we see three US rate cuts currently priced into markets.

It is possible that a tariff-led trade war could create headwinds for global equities if it delivers lower growth and higher inflation. As ASR calculate 40% of S&P 500 sales come from outside the US, a tariff-led slowdown abroad could be a drag on US corporate profits. In Europe 20% of revenues come from the US particularly linked to autos, staples, and industrials while in Asia a 10% US revenue exposure would be felt in autos, technology, and consumer products. At the moment the US dollar is weaker, but a strong dollar would also be a headwind for non-US equitiesi.

The ECB cut rates last week 0.25% to take headline rates to 2.5% with many believing that the neutral rate is close or may have been met. Many forecasters now believe that the Eurozone growth outlook may not be as negative as suggested, not helped by the talk of being on the Trump radar for the introduction of further tariffs. However, capital expenditure seems to be generally picking up which could benefit manufacturing while construction activity is also recovering. The removal of political uncertainty, and the likelihood of looser fiscal policy in Germany and France may also underpin increasingly supportive monetary conditions, not to mention a possible ceasefire between Russia-Ukraine.

China has been stuck in a deflationary environment for seven quarters, and this has probably been a source of global disinflation. However, there are signs of activity as the output gap narrows due to strengthening demand away from consumption, however, the need for further stimulus may be necessary. Solutions to the housing market, a recapitalisation of banks to allow for more losses in firms and increased fiscal stimulus could all assist China escape its deflationary environment, assuming a deflationary mindset has not become entrenched.

In conclusion, we started the year believing that the environment best supported global equities and – despite the challenges of higher bond yields, inconsistent US tariff policy, a change in sentiment towards AI brought about by Deep Seek, and concerns regarding growth – fundamentals still offer support. A broadening out in earnings with several sectors now seeing double-digit earnings growth has now been complemented by a broadening out in returns. Therefore, currently, we remain in favour of risk assets but are mindful of the possibility that erratic US policies may lead investors to undergo an element of de-risking. A period of macro uncertainty could also concern markets, and as returns have become earnings-led any downgrades to 2025 forecasts may challenge valuations. Markets seem to be now pricing in 3 rate cuts for the US in 2025 which is similar to the ECB and the BOE outlooks suggesting that recession concerns are growing in the US. Furthermore, we see the outlook for US and European economies returning to a more normal setting implying that much of the US exceptionalism is perhaps being priced-out.

 

Acknowledgements

 

[i] Zara Ward-Murphy _ ASR Investment Committee Briefing _ March 3, 2025

by Tim Sharp

 

Global equities may have returned 3% in January but the “Magnificent 7” were flat as the fall-out from Deep Seek questioned the capex spend related to the development of Generative AI models. Markets were taken by surprise by the Deep Seek announcement that saw a Chinese-based generative AI model achieve comparable results to the latest OpenAI models using a much-reduced level of computing power, as well as older chips, and at a fraction of the cost. This may bring major AI-related capex spending forecasts into question, however, the Q4 earnings season still saw many Mega-Cap Tech companies confirm their forecast AI spend. Shortly after the announcement, OpenAI did question whether the training of the model had infringed their copyright, and uncertainty remains on the future demand for datacenters, power usage, and Nvidia’s dominance over chip makers such as AMD, Arm, and TSMC, as well as the possibility of it’s largest customers, such as Meta, Amazon, and OpenAI, creating in-house products to create competition and save costs.

The US “exceptionalism” story has been based upon a widening productivity gap between the US and other developed nations since the pandemic, based largely upon the technological advantages created from the development of AI. We see technological innovation as being critical in pushing US productivity. The ability of the US to maintain its advantage will probably rely on the innovation within AI continuing to accelerate or signs that its—-wider adoption into other sectors is also capable of driving productivity growth in the wider economy.

Fixed income benchmarks were broadly unchanged in January after the bear steepening events of December. A deeper look at the rising 10-year Treasury yields since September last year highlights the impact of the movement in the term premium on equity markets. Resilient economic data coupled with rising yields led to positive equity returns in Q424. However, when yields rose above 4.5% and economic expectations fell while the term premium expanded in December and January, equity returns were less positive. The change in the relationship between bond yields and equities may also have been impacted by Q424 earnings season where yield sensitive sectors, such as Energy, Banks and Insurers, seem more correlated to a move in yields than Technology, Healthcare and Media.

Absolute Strategy Research (ASR) Sentiment Indicators improved over January across most asset classes but most noticeably in European and UK equities, and Gold and Copper[i]. The Federal Reserve Banks of St Louis and Chicago published Financial Conditions Index was 3% looser in January to the 12^th percentile, while real yields rose significantly. Key macro developments saw the manufacturing PMIs stronger than expected in the US, Europe, and UK, while services PMIs were weaker except in the UK. Within the Eurozone, we see differences in structure to that of the US aimed at protecting workers’ rights as shown by a higher level of collective bargaining, and union representation within the wider workforce. Worker protection may have created a less flexible workforce that may leave wage growth stronger by comparison during Q125. Stickier wage growth may well impact the ECB’s ability to execute monetary policy changes at a time when further stimulus may be appropriate for the wider economy. A 25bp cut from the ECB and a dovish hold from the Fed in January were largely as expected, while the fallout from a surprising rate hike by the Bank of Japan led to the underperformance of Japanese equities, and we have now seen a BOE cut of 25bps in early February. We believe the major developed economies seem to be on diverging paths at present which is best reflected in currency markets, and this is leading to pressures building for both monetary and fiscal policy decision-making as well as relative valuations for global financial assets.

The 7% gain in gold in January while still mainly a consequence of central bank buying, most notably China and India, may also be sending a signal that investors are wary of a world where the number of active parties in global geo-political events is growing, and concerns over the level of indebtedness of developed countries and the effect this might have on policy. The recent 3-year US Treasury auction attracted demand from foreign investors as well as domestic interest at 4.3% although dealer interest was low, and with 33% of the US debt outstanding up for renewal in 2025 due to the level of 3-month T-Bill funding undertaken by the last administration, it will be interesting to see the level for appetite in the longer maturities from concerned investors.

The Trump agenda has seen many executive orders signed, the most significant related to climate change, however many of the tariff initiatives have been used as bargaining tools and rolled back from initiation. The future of other policies such as tax reforms and de-regulation remains unclear to us, but risk assets seem to have accepted the policy uncertainty, capex intentions have accelerated, and there are signs in the manufacturing ISMs that the economy is gaining momentum. The expected broadening out of returns from the continuing strong economic outlook, may see the momentum from the Trump trade for small and mid-cap equities within the S&P600 continue where 12-month forward EPS growth are estimated at 20.8% for the S&P600 versus. 14% for the S&P500i.

After an encouraging end to 2024, Chinese equities have plateaued without further actions by the administration to stimulate growth, and fears over the pace of a new trade war with the US. Following the US decision to impose a 10% tax on all Chinese imports, China retaliated with a 15% border tax on US coal and LNG products as well as a 10% tariff on American crude oil, agricultural machinery, and large engine cars. China has also imposed export controls on 25 rare metals used in electrical products and military equipment.  These moves are probably only the opening negotiations in what could be a more volatile trade war than previously experienced because both countries most likely feel they have strong positions. China has moved large parts of its final-stage assembly to other developing countries as well as becoming a significant global exporter of automobiles. Although the level of trade between the US and China has remained reasonably steady at approximately $580bn, China has diversified its trade and investments and seems to have increased its technological capabilities since 2018-2020. The leaders do not seem to be in a hurry to meet currently, but the outcomes of US tariffs are likely to have an impact on global growth and the flow of goods and services around the global economy.

In summary, despite the adjustments to rates probably being higher for longer, the outlook still appears favourable for equities, and we expect the broadening out of earnings growth to take over as the driver of valuations. Although the US has stronger momentum, there are several relative valuations that have become stretched not least in Europe which led to outperformance in January as Mega-Cap Tech faltered. For this to continue, Europe will probably need to find further catalysts such as an improving macro background, positive progress for Ukraine, a stabilisation in the China outlook, and a weaker dollar, as well as a favourable outcome in its tariff negotiations with the US.

 

 

[i] Zara Ward-Murphy _ ASR Investment Committee Briefing _ February 3, 2025

By Tim Sharp

 

November was a risk-on month, following the unexpected Republican clean sweep in the Presidential elections that saw the markets react with a “Trump Trade”. Global equities rallied 4% in November with the US leading the way (+6.5%) and more specifically Small Caps (+11%) seen as a beneficiary of Trump policies to reduce corporate taxation, loosen fiscal constraints, and reduce regulation. Mega-tech was seen outperforming the wider US market, and Growth equities (+4.3%) were the next best performing factor. Global fixed income (+0.9%) was also in positive territory and led, in local terms, by Italian BTPs and German Bunds. This has been an indication of the level of fiscal stimulus being used by the US administration, creating loose conditions to facilitate future Fed easing. Although the December meeting saw the widely expected 25 basis point cut to the Fed Funds Rate, the euphoria in some parts of the US equity market was tempered by hawkish comments from Chair Powell. Financial markets had come to expect inflation to continue to fall despite the reflationary policies being considered by the new administration after the inauguration. The Fed therefore decided to remind markets of the pressures still showing within the US economy that could keep rates higher than forecasts predict for 2025. Furthermore, the breadth of equity market returns had narrowed once more, and the 10-yr US Treasury yield had passed the psychological 4.5% level that tends to affect equities. US equities have duly reset and now find themselves, at the time of writing, in negative territory for the month. Several concerns are creating year end headwinds, including Fed policy uncertainty, and an unexpected debt-ceiling debate despite the Republican majority.

 

There remains much political uncertainty in the developed world and – while we would normally deduce that politics rarely has long term effects on global financial markets – 2025 could be an exception. The change in policy outlook of a Trump administration has been taken as broadly equity positive, but the order of priorities could potentially change that outlook. For example, limiting or deporting immigrants, implementing tariffs aggressively, or cutting government spending are likely to have a poorer result on the growth outlook than cutting taxes or deregulation, with knock-on ramifications for the global economy. Furthermore, the expectations for an escalation in the US-China trade war are elevated and could affect both external demand and the relationship with alternative trading partners, at a time when existing fiscal and monetary stimulus has started to influence domestic demand. The chance of further fiscal stimulus may see China become more influential on global growth, as President Xi reportedly predicts China will hit its 5% growth target for 2024 in contrast to the expectations of many economic forecasters.

 

Further political uncertainties exist within the Eurozone, where a vote of no confidence in France’s Barnier government led to the dissolution of parliament, and the rejection of a tightening budget that the financial markets had looked upon favourably. This leaves President Macron to attempt another minority coalition with a more populist prime minister. Germany also faces snap elections in February after a no confidence vote in the current Scholz-led coalition in the face of rising right wing populist support and a potential change in the way the EU supports unity in fiscal policies. Germany remains one of the most conservative and influential countries within the EU in our opinion, so any loosening of the economic constraints by a more economically liberal government could impact the approach to governance and EU funding. European growth has surprised on the upside in 2024, and as monetary and fiscal drag reduce, is expected to continue in 2025. There is little doubt that Trump’s approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to significantly impact the European outlook, potentially more so than the threat of tariffs. However, the potential for China to surprise on the upside will also influence the outlook for Europe.

 

In summary, we believe it is likely that the Trump trade and US exceptionalism will run into 2025 with technology, small caps, and cyclicals rallying on the potential for lower taxes and the loosening of regulation. We note that the differential between European and US valuations remains at its widest historically, which is being justified by the higher earnings growth forecast in the US. JPMorgan expect S&P500 earnings to grow by 14%, and European ex-UK by 8%, with multiples of 22x vs. 14x, respectively, while their UK forecast calls for 8% earnings growth in a market trading at just 11x[i]. This suggests to us that a significant discount for lower earnings estimates may already be priced into valuations. Some elements may be attributable to composition of sectors, especially the weighting to technology at 32% vs 9%, however, most sectors trade at a sizeable historical valuation discount to the US. There is a possibility for policy surprises in both the US and Europe, while earnings and margins will need to continue to expand to justify the US valuation premium.

 

In the meantime, we remain cognisant of relative valuations, the changing macroeconomic environment, and the geopolitical risks that we expect to significantly impact the global economy and financial markets. We wish everyone an enjoyable holiday period and look forward to 2025 with anticipation.

 

 

[i] Karen Ward _ JPMorgan Asset Management EMEA _ Investment Outlook 2025 _ November 2024

 

Acknowledgements

 

Zahra Ward-Murphy _ Absolute Strategy Research _ Investment Committee Briefing _ 2^nd December 2024

by Tim Sharp

October has proved to be a significant month for markets. Global equities lost 2% reversing September gains, government bond yields rise, wars in Ukraine and the Middle East escalate, betting on the outcome of the Presidential election in the US is relaxed with interesting results, and the UK Labour Government holds its first budget since 2010 delivered for the first time in history by a woman.

US equities outperformed world equities although monthly returns were led by Japan (1.9%) after surprise election results while after a strong middle of the month the NASDAQ weakened (-0.52%) as the “MAG7” gave up 3.6% over the closing days versus a 1% monthly decrease in the S&P500. US Q3 earnings are currently surprising by 6%[i] led by Technology, with Banks in US and Europe also producing quarterly results above expectations. Furthermore, there appears to be a broadening out in Q3 earnings within the S&P493 (ex-MAG7) with growth running at 2%, 5.3% ex-Energy[ii], and European earnings results are also strong surprising by 7%[i].

Following the robust September US jobs report which added 254,000 jobs versus 150,000 expected, and saw the unemployment rate fall back to 4.1%, many investors questioned whether the Federal Open Market Committee would have agreed to cut rates by 0.50% instead of 0.25% if they were in possession of this data. The bond market started to reconsider its rate cutting forecasts particularly as the US Presidential Election date moves ever closer. Betting prediction sites particularly Polymarket which does not limit the size of bets that are made show a late improvement in the odds of a Trump win although opinion polls, traditional sites such as PredictIt that limit wagers, and companies such as Robinhood and Kalshi that offer derivative Event Contracts, seem to have the result too close to call.

The general press seems to believe that the late momentum is with Trump and markets are reacting to that[iii]. Despite stronger economic data resulting in higher real interest rates (adjusted for the effects of inflation), the chances of a Trump win, and the odds of a Republican clean sweep, increase the possibility of sweeping tax cuts, imposition of higher trade tariffs, and a sharper increase in the deficit. This has helped the 10-year US Treasury yield rise from 3.80% to 4.28% over the month as it moves to predicting only 50bps of easing by the Fed over the next three meetings from 100bps. John Authers further points out in his daily Bloomberg column that there is a striking comparison in the moves in the 10-year yield and Trump odds according to Polymarket[iv]. The MOVE bond volatility index remains at its highest levels for the year in stark contrast to the stable condition of the VIX stock market volatility index.

A Trump win is considered to be positive for equities which explains the leadership once more of Mega-Tech. However, the market considered most likely to benefit from a loosening of regulation under a Trump presidency is cryptocurrencies, underscored by his keynote speech at the Bitcoin 2024 Conference in July[v]. Bitcoin has rallied from $53,955 on September 6 to an all-time high of over $72,500 by the end of October with over $3.6bn of net inflows into Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF’s)[vi]. It appears Bitcoin is also gaining traction as an inflation hedge with alternative investors. Gold – the classic inflation hedge – has also reached a new high of $2,777 on the back of its safe haven status and protection against extreme policy changes! We are less than a week away from election day but could be weeks away from a result being declared so we believe we will see increased volatility during the period of uncertainty.

Rachel Reeves delivered what has been reported as a blockbuster UK budget on October 30 second only to Norman Lamont’s 1993 budget. With the major themes of borrowing to invest, and to cover a contested hole of £22bn in the finances inherited from the last government, broadly telegraphed over the previous months, we feel the market reaction has still been surprisingly benign. Although the 10-Year Gilt has followed European and US Treasury counterparts higher from 3.94% to 4.41%, the move since the budget is approximately 6bps allaying any fears of a Truss-like mini-budget reaction to increased borrowing. Moves in £/$ and £/EUR have also been benign suggesting that the change in investment philosophy which has been echoed by the IMF[vii] appears to have been accepted by financial markets.

At a headline level, the budget involved £40bn in tax rises, £100bn in capital spending, and an extra £35bn to be funded through higher borrowing. Following a review of the main points we would like to highlight some changes that may affect investment decision-making.

In summary, tax receipts are expected to be £36bn higher on average and capital expenditure £24bn meaning public sector borrowing is set to rise £32bn per year on average. This means the new measure of debt defined as Public Sector Net Financial Liabilities will rise to 84.2% of GDP by 2026-27 from 83.5% now. The emphasis of the budget is to stimulate growth and ASR project that GDP growth will be 0.6% better in 2024-25 fiscal year, 0.4% in 2025-26, and 0.1% in 2026-27 all generated from central government investment. ASR further point out that the level of the UK government’s inward investment is significantly less than that carried out by its G7 counterparts and although this budget closes the gap by approximately 0.3% of GDP it remains little more than a step in the right direction[viii]. The importance of the Chancellor’s message regarding the direction of travel probably outlines a strategic change under this government that will require future action if it is to provide the improvements in productivity and growth that is required to compete with similar nations.

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

[i] ASR _ Investment Committee Briefing November _ November 1, 2024

[ii] ASR _ Q3 Earnings – Looking for broadening _ October 31, 2024

[iii] Forbes _ Jay Ginsbach _ Trump-Harris Betting Markets And Swing States Odds With US President Projections _ October 31, 2024

[iv] Bloomberg _ Points of Return _ John Authers _ Helter-Skelter in bonds as markets doubt Fed cuts _ October 22, 2024

[v] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9UxAUryUKXM

[vi] Bloomberg _ Points of Return _ John Authers _ Bitcoin is boss, bonds at a loss _ October 31, 2024

[vii] https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/imf-fiscal-chief-says-uk-needs-bring-debt-under-control-welcomes-fiscal-rules-2024-10-23/

[viii] ASR _ Ben Blanchard _ “Invest, Invest, Invest”_ October 31, 2024

 

by Tim Sharp

September and October are historically the most challenging period for financial markets as participants return from summer breaks and we enter the final quarter of the year starting with the anniversary of 9/11. Markets have been data dependent ever since central banks announced that they were relying on the data to signal the beginning of the easing cycle, having already suggested that we had reached peak rates over the summer. Following the Jackson Hole Symposium speech by Fed Chair Powell speculation had moved from when the first cut would materialise to whether the cut in September would be 25bps or 50bps and – to the surprise of some – the FOMC voted for a 50bps cut at its September meeting. It is not unusual for the Fed to start an easing cycle with a larger-than-normal cut in rates, but then it is unusual to start easing when the underlying economy is as resilient as it is currently showing, so this is an important shift in momentum. Financial markets are now pricing in another 50bps before year-end and a neutral R-Star rate of approximately 3%i. R* or R-Star is the real short-term interest rate that would prevail if the economy was at equilibrium. It is by nature difficult to calculate and largely notional but would neutralise the business cycle.

There have been many economists predicting a recession for most of 2024 following the steep rise in interest rates during the prior year, and western economies led by the US have largely shown their resilience, but as we see August Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) falling close to the 2% target, US unemployment above 3.2%, and consumer confidence beginning to flag despite strong revisions in corporate earnings and margins, concerns that the momentum may deteriorate sharply have motivated the Fed to assert that it is ahead of the curve.

In our opinion the indicators of a looming recession such as overleverage, credit market stresses, high default rates, and other signs of growing imbalances in the economy are currently absent outside of the US Treasury yield curve which dis-inverted during September and currently sits at +17bps 2yrs-10yrs, a strong historical indicator of a recession. We are also wary of deteriorating employment figures and consumer balance sheets, although these pressures are most acute in lower wage cohorts that have a limited impact on aggregate consumption. As we have stated previously, the environment still favours risk assets and – after a short show of nerves at the Fed’s decision – equity markets have gone on to post a positive September after another shaky start on the back of poor data. The S&P500 gained 2% and the NASDAQ 2.7%, while major European and UK bourses are flat on the month.

Germany’s IFO survey of business sentiment fell again in September for a fourth consecutive month to 85.4 from 86.4 in August after the economy contracted in the second quarter. A contraction in the third quarter would indicate that Germany is in recession, if it is not already, with the business climate index in manufacturing falling to its lowest level since June 2020. The European Central Bank (ECB) followed the Fed’s move in September, but many economists are pushing for another cut in October in line with the ECB’s “meeting by meeting” approach after September’s Purchasing Managers Index Survey (PMI) data continues to point to economic weakness.

Europe relies heavily on its relationship with China, its largest trading partner, and Chinese exports have flooded European markets as the region tries to stimulate its lagging economy. The Chinese Central Bank (PBoC) in an unusual western-style announcement on September 24 lowered bank reserve requirements, cut interest rates by 0.1%, and stated that it will provide funds to brokers to buy stocks. The announcement pushed Chinese stocks higher, leaving the Shanghai SE up 17.4% on the month. The commitment to further action if needed may be enough to lift sentiment as well as asset prices and deliver a rebound in consumer demand and the ailing property sector, although growth still appears to be tracking well below the 5% target. There remains a reluctance for corporates and consumers to increase their borrowing due to already highly-leveraged positions after the property slump, so, in our opinion, making more stimulus available without addressing these concerns in the longer term may not be enough.

Inflation in the UK is proving a little stickier than elsewhere, as referenced in Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey’s Jackson Hole Symposium speech leaving expectations that rates would be left unchanged in September by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), and they duly were. The MPC would like to see inflation “squeezed out of the system” entirely before embarking on an easing cycle. This has been good news for sterling, which has gained 1.8% versus the dollar over the month rising to 1.34 and 1.1% versus the Euro climbing to over 1.20. Labour supply remains very tight following Brexit, and 7% of the UK workforce is not working due to long-term sickness[i], which leaves the UK workforce with bargaining power, despite a surprising drop in consumer confidence in September. Forecasts suggest a more gradual 150bps decline in UK rates by the end of 2025 with the next cut expected at the November meeting.

Falling interest rates, a weaker dollar, and a worsening geo-political back drop is a good environment for gold as a safe-haven asset, and the price has continued to strengthen to as high as $2,670 /oz during September, a 30% rally this year. Since the economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the US, many central banks have been keen buyers of gold to boost reserves and reduce their reliability on fiat currencies – not least the dollar and US Treasuries. China and India reportedly have added significantly to their gold reserves this year and central bank buying has generally added a significant tailwind to the price[ii]. It is difficult to justify the rally in gold this year without the involvement of central bank demand leaving the price extremely overbought unless the global economy is heading for a deep recession or a prolonged period of uncertainty, which we currently doubt.

In summary, there are signs that the US economy is slowing, bringing renewed calls for a pending recession from parts of the market. However, as we expected, we see an economy that seems to be heading for a soft landing and a broadening out of returns and we therefore continue to favour risk assets.

 

 

 

[i] Ward Karen _ JPMAM _ My Key Question This Month _ Should the BOE follow the FED _ 2024.09.25

[ii] Authers John _ Bloomberg Opinion _ Points of Return _ All That Glitters _ 2024.09.27

by Tim Sharp

 

The markets’ wobble at the beginning of the month was well documented in our mid-month commentary. To recap, a mixture of softening economic data led investors to believe that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) was behind the curve, risking a hard landing. These concerns combined with the unwinding of the Yen carry trade, as the currency strengthened significantly following an unexpected rate tightening by the Bank of Japan (BOJ).

Two weeks later, headline CPI fell below 3%, the lowest inflation print since March 2021, and into the Fed’s target zone. Concurrently, many economists – such as Dr Torsten Slok of Apollo, via his Daily Spark note – pointed out signs of enduring strength in the US economy[i]:

“Looking at the latest daily and weekly data shows that retail sales are strong, jobless claims are falling, restaurant bookings are strong, air travel is strong, hotel occupancy rates are high, bank credit growth is accelerating, bankruptcy filings are trending lower, credit card spending is solid, and Broadway show attendance and box office grosses are strong.

The bottom line is that there are no signs of a recession in the incoming data,”

As we predicted, Fed Chair Powell used the Jackson Hole Symposium to underline the Fed’s view of the data and surprised many by his dovish speech. He unambiguously declared:

“The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

With the Fed clearly believing that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%, and with employment data robust but related pressures having eased, the fundamentals for a soft landing are falling into place. As the month draws to a close, Fed Funds Futures are pricing in 100bps of cuts by year-end. With just three meetings remaining until year end, the question for September’s meeting is whether it will see a 25bps or 50bps cut.

The other major event for August was Nvidia’s results, after the market close on August 28^th. These were expected to either underline the markets over-optimism in the roll-out of AI (Artificial Intelligence) or extend the run of ‘beat-expectations-and-raise-guidance’ results that investors had become so spectacularly used to receiving. The company reported a very strong second quarter: revenue growth of 122% year-on-year, earnings-per-share (EPS) growth of 152%, and expected third quarter revenue growth of 80%, all of which were higher than the average estimates. However, the results failed to beat the most optimistic of expectations which, combined with the continued slow roll-out of the new Blackwell chip, led to the shares being sold off 8% in after-hours trading, before closing approximately 6% lower the following day. This proves that merely beating expectations is insufficient for mega-tech momentum to continue, against a backdrop of optimistic valuations. Although the belief in the AI story remains, question marks over AI’s ability to generate wider returns through its usage are emerging.

Following the sell-off at the beginning of the month, the equal-weighted S&P500 index regained its all-time high on August 21^st, while the market-weighted index took a couple of days longer to do so and has since weakened into month end, following Nvidia’s results. This suggests to us that a broadening out of returns is underway, a contention that the latest earnings season has supported. With over 97% of the S&P500 having reported, aggregate earnings have beaten estimates by 5.6%, versus an historical average of 4.8%, with 74% of companies topping estimates. Second quarter revenues grew on average 5.2%, while EPS grew 11.6%. Although technology was by far the strongest sector, we feel these results reflect broad strength in the US economy and little sign of a looming recession[ii].

The pricing in of future interest rate cuts has also seen the US Treasury curve steepen, with 2-yr bond yields dropping 7 basis points to 3.90%, while 10-yr yields increased to 3.86%. As a result, the curve is inverted by only c. 4bps, which is the closest we have been to a dis-inversion for the last couple of years.

Turning to the UK, the Labour government is gearing up for the Autumn budget by taking the opportunity to announce a £22bn perceived “black hole” in the country’s finances and forewarn the need for tax rises. Investors are focusing on capital gains tax’s equalisation with income tax, which has caused alarm in the buy-to-let property market and in buy-and-hold investment portfolios. Inheritance tax and employer national insurance contributions are rumoured to be in the crosshairs, as the major taxes have been declared off-limits, to ensure that those who can afford to pay more, contribute more. After the ructions of the Conservative time in office, markets seem more constructive about the challenge facing Chancellor Reeves and her attempts to prove fiscal sustainability. The pound is back to 1.31-1.32 versus the dollar, a level which it has not reached since 2020, although it is debatable whether this is sterling strength or broader dollar weakness. However, 1.19 against the Euro is also back to a level last seen in 2022. Sticky inflation suggests that the Bank of England (BOE) may be less likely to cut rates in September than the European Central Bank (ECB) in our opinion, with Governor Andrew Bailey providing a note of caution at the Jackson Hole Symposium and perhaps looking at November for the next move in UK interest rates.

The boost that hosting the Olympics has given France further highlights the weakness of the German economy, where growth contracted in the second quarter, and inflation surprisingly dropped below 2% in August. Spanish inflation was also weaker than expected, highlighting the possibility that Eurozone inflation may be moving closer to the ECB’s 2% target rate. Although other economies have been performing relatively better, former ECB President Mario Draghi has been researching a potential plan for fiscal stimulus which, if implemented in tandem with an ECB rate cut, may boost the region’s economic prospects. August’s Flash PMI figures suggested weakening growth in both manufacturing and services and the ECB’s July meeting pointed to a re-assessment of the appropriate level of monetary policy in September. Rate cut speculation directly affects currencies, and the Euro sits at 1.1050 versus the dollar as we witness a prolonged period of dollar weakness, with markets pricing in easing speculation, providing breathing space for the wider global economy.

The Dollar Index has had a difficult month, losing 2.4% on shifting rate expectations and, more broadly, is down 4% this quarter-to-date, and flat year-to-date, reflecting the shift in relative real yields. Periods of dollar weakness provide a tailwind for the global economy and have pushed gold 2.77% higher in August, to $2,524/oz and burnishing the metal’s role as a hedge against geopolitical risk which is currently rising in the Middle East and Europe.

As we reach US Labour Day, we expect to see volumes start to increase, following a typically slow August as investors return from vacations. August’s volatility will encourage markets to become even more data dependent as we move towards the central bank decision-making period at the end of September. The current data sees inflation continuing to fall towards the 2% target rate, employment market pressures receding, and growth rates consistent with a soft landing. We believe this environment remains healthy for risk assets and, based on relative economic performance, continue to favour the US over other regions, as the need for monetary easing is finely balanced by continued economic resilience.

 

 

 

 

[i] Slok, Dr Torsten _ Apollo Daily Spark _ The Economy Is Doing Just Fine _ 2024.08.17

[ii] Golub, Jonathan _ UBS _ Earnings Brief 2Q24 August 29 _ 2024.08.29

by Tim Sharp

As has been the case for much of the recent history, the path of inflation and interest rates along with the strength of the broader economy continues to dominate markets. Since the last hike from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in August 2023, a central focus of investors has been around the timing of the first cut, along with the trajectory for interest rates going forward. With Chair Powell signalling that the Fed remains data dependent, markets have been whipsawed as different data points have signalled economic strength or weakness.

We believe this was a trigger for the very pronounced moves in both equity and fixed income markets in Q4 2023, as softening data on the economy led investors to price in five rate cuts in 2024. Up until very recently, continued economic resilience largely underpinned by a strong US consumer and a robust labour market led to interest rate expectations moving higher. Equity markets can look through the rate cuts being priced out, if underpinned by a strong economy, although this has led to far more emphasis on earnings. It has been a far more challenging environment for bond markets, which had suffered against this backdrop.

Touching on valuations in the US Technology sector, “Mega-tech” have contributed significantly to the recent performance of the S&P 500 as an AI related boom has propelled earnings and valuations. Against a backdrop of a reducing number of rate hikes being priced in during H1 2024, greater and greater emphasis has been placed on the earnings of these companies. The most recent quarterly earnings season, we see growing concerns around how – and importantly when – these companies will be able to monetise the significant AI related expenditure. This disappointment triggered a significant technical rotation into the small cap Russell 2000 index in July at the expense of “mega-tech”.  However, it is still unclear to us whether this will continue from being a technical rebound into a full-blown rotation as many investors still seem drawn to the possible growth story within technology and the free cash flow generated by mega-tech but we believe small caps are historically more interest rate sensitive should the easing cycle get under way.

At present we calculate that markets are back to pricing in five cuts by the end of the year up from the two cuts in July, with an almost 100% probability of a September cut. Our approach through this has been to focus on the longer term, rather than attempting to time short term changes in expectations. It may take wise words from Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium later in August to calm some of the more anxious investors. Economists we follow point out that although the US has slowed, there is no obvious catalyst for recession with asset prices underpinned, profits strong, and inflation falling allowing the Fed more room to manoeuvre[i]. It is likely that interest rates will be lower in the coming months in our opinion.

Turning to geo-politics. In addition to the two major conflicts ongoing in the world now with fears of further escalation, we expect the US presidential election to take centre stage in the latter part of 2024. As things stand, a Trump presidency appears to be the most likely outcome, although a lot can change between now and November. Whilst there is a lot of uncertainty around what Trump 2.0 might look like, there are two key areas of focus for markets. Expectations are for expansionary fiscal policy and business friendly policies, which should be supportive of company’s earnings. That said given the current size of fiscal deficit, markets may be more punishing towards increased spending. In addition to this, policy towards Ukraine and China has been a potential source of concern as Trump leads with an ‘America first’ campaign.

Looking more specifically at the events since the beginning of August, markets have become once again very concerned with the health of the US economy along with valuations in the mega-cap technology sector. A major catalyst for the latest spike in volatility indices was the August unemployment report. The most recent data for July showed the US added 114,000 jobs, far below market expectations of 175,000 along with unemployment that rose to 4.3% against expectations of 4.1%. This has led to fears that the Federal reserve is ‘behind the curve’, with suggestions that they have been too slow to lower interest rates and provide support for the economy, risking a hard landing.

In addition to this, the rise in unemployment in July triggered the “Sahm rule” which indicates a recession has started when the three-month moving average unemployment rate is 0.5% or higher than the lowest point of the last twelve months, an economic indicator that has previously been a signal that the US economy is in recession. However, we also understand that the easing of a Covid-related backlog in US Visa applications has increased labour supply through immigration[ii] and although we can see that private sector job openings are declining the “Sahm rule” was designed for a decline in labour demand so may be less of an indicator in 2024[ii].

Moreover, there continues to be ongoing Covid related dislocations. Unemployment has been rising from a very low base and although the July report was weak, taking a broader perspective over the past three months the US has averaged 170,000 jobs. Comparing this to the pre pandemic average of 178,000 in 2018 and 2019, would suggest to us that an impending major recession is less likely.

The latest data release was Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) which was also benign enough for markets to continue to expect a September cut in rates. The headline rate of 2.9% year-on-year was lower than the 3% expected and the lowest rate since March 2021, while the 0.2% advance month-on-month was in line with expectations. Core inflation that strips out food and energy was also in line with expectations at 3.2% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Inflation readings have been slowly drifting back towards the Fed’s 2% target although they are sticky in areas, such as shelter, further reducing inflation as a reason for the Fed to stay on hold.

A hawkish rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was the second catalyst for the significant moves in financial markets. Japan was the best performing stock market in dollar terms in July largely due to the performance of the Yen[i] and the technical unwinding of the carry trade leading to Yen short covering during July and into August. Historically, we have seen Japanese investors investing overseas which has meant more recently investing in mega-tech or the NASDAQ Index in the US. As the results season has seen “mega-tech” disappoint and valuations back up, coinciding with significant Yen strength, we believe this has led to many Japanese investors repatriating funds. The reaction of Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) to the change in BOJ policy towards yield curve control and the decision to hike rates into an already strengthening currency has assisted JGB 10-Yr yields rise to 1.1% which may well attract local investors. Despite the 11% rally in $ / Yen taking it from 162 to 144, Purchase – Power – Parity (PPP) comparisons suggest that the Yen is still cheap by historical standards while the US – Japan 10-yr yield differential as calculated by ASR also suggests a stronger Yen could continue[i].

Whilst heightened volatility is certainly uncomfortable, and we are actively monitoring the situation, as long-term investors we remain constructive on risk assets. Summer holiday season often coincides with increased volatility in markets and this year has so far been no exception. We continue to look for a broadening out of returns in US equities and were pleased to see that nine out of eleven sectors have surprised on the upside albeit modestly during this US earnings season. We expect to see the beginning of the US interest rate easing cycle in September, although we currently do not see a recession on the horizon. We continue to favour risk assets but perhaps a period of relative underperformance of “mega-tech” in favour of sectors that outperform during easing cycles such as Healthcare, and Consumer Staples.

 

 

 

[i] Ward-Murphy _ Zara _ Absolute Strategy Research_ Investment Committee Briefing – August 2024

[ii] Slok _ Dr. Thorsten _ The Daily Spark _ Apollo _ August 8, 2024